[2020] FWCFB 3500

FAIR WORK COMMISSION

DECISION

Fair Work Act 2009
s.285—Annual wage review

Annual Wage Review 2019–20
(C2020/1)

JUSTICE ROSS, PRESIDENT
VICE PRESIDENT CATANZARITI
DEPUTY PRESIDENT ASBURY
COMMISSIONER HAMPTON
MR FERGUSON
PROFESSOR WOODEN
MS LABINE-ROMAIN

MELBOURNE, 19 JUNE 2020

Paragraph
1.	Reasons for Decision of Justice Ross, Vice President Catanzariti, Deputy President Asbury, Commissioner Hampton, Mr Ferguson and Ms Labine-Romain The Decision	[1]
2.	The Legislative Framework	[193]
3.	Economic and Labour Market Considerations	[272]
4.	Relative Living Standards and the Needs of the Low Paid	[338]
5.	Other Relevant Considerations	[386]
6.	Transitional Instruments and Other Matters	[406]
7.	Conclusion	[464]
8.	Reasons for Decision of Professor Wooden	[476]

Abbreviations

2011–12 Review decision	Annual Wage Review 2011–12 decision
2012–13 Review decision	Annual Wage Review 2012–13 decision
2014–15 Review decision	Annual Wage Review 2014–15 decision
2015–16 Review decision	Annual Wage Review 2015–16 decision
2016–17 Review decision	Annual Wage Review 2016–17 decision
2017–18 Review decision	Annual Wage Review 2017–18 decision
2018–19 Review decision	Annual Wage Review 2018–19 decision
AAWI	average annualised wage increase
ABI	Australian Business Industrial and the NSW Business Chamber Ltd
ABS	Australian Bureau of Statistics
ACBC	Australian Catholic Bishops Conference
ACCI	Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry
ACCS	Additional Child Care Subsidy
ACOSS	Australian Council of Social Service
Act	Fair Work Act 2009 (Cth)
ACTU	Australian Council of Trade Unions
Ai Group	Australian Industry Group
APCSs	Australian Pay and Classification Scales
April Statement	[2020] FWCFB 1804
ATO	Australian Taxation Office
AWOTE	average weekly ordinary time earnings
AWU	Australian Workers’ Union
C4	Engineering Associate/Laboratory Technical Officer Level 1
C10	Engineering/Manufacturing Tradesperson Level 1
C14	Engineering/Manufacturing Employee Level 1
CCS	Child Care Subsidy
Commission	Fair Work Commission
CPI	Consumer Price Index
Discussion paper	Fair Work Commission (2020), What can and can’t be done in the Annual Wage Review 2019–20, Discussion Paper, 13 May.
EEH	Survey of Employee Earnings and Hours
FCIA	Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries
GDP	gross domestic product
GVA	gross value added
HILDA	Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia
IMF	International Monetary Fund
LCI	Living Cost Index
LMITO	low and middle income tax offset
Manufacturing Award	Manufacturing and Associated Industries and Occupations Award 2020
MGA	Master Grocers Australia Limited
NCVER	National Centre for Vocational Education Research
NMW	national minimum wage
NNDSS	National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System
NSA	Newstart Allowance (now JobSeeker)
NTWS	National Training Wage Schedule
OECD	Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Panel	Expert Panel for annual wage reviews
Rail Award	Rail Industry Award 2020
Rail Employers	Aurizon, Australian Rail Track Corporation, Brookfield Rail Pty Ltd, Sydney Trains and V/Line Passenger Pty Ltd
RBA	Reserve Bank of Australia
R&CA	Restaurant and Catering Industry Association
Review	Annual Wage Review
RNNDI	real net national disposable income
RTBU	Australian Rail, Tram and Bus Industry Union
SDA	Shop Distributive and Allied Employees’ Association
SES Award	Supported Employment Services Award 2020
Statistical report	Statistical Report—Annual Wage Review 2019–20
SWS	Supported Wage System
Transitional Act	Fair Work (Transitional Provisions and Consequential Amendments) Act 2009
UK	United Kingdom
US	United States of America
VET	Vocational Education and Training
VMRSR Award	Vehicle Manufacturing, Repair, Services and Retail Award 2010
WAD	Workplace Agreements Database
WPI	Wage Price Index

The Annual Wage Review Decision

Reasons for Decision of Justice Ross, Vice President Catanzariti, Deputy President Asbury, Commissioner Hampton, Mr Ferguson and Ms Labine-Romain

1. The Decision

[1] The Fair Work Act 2009 (Cth) (Act) requires the Commission, constituted by an Expert Panel for annual wage reviews (Panel), to conduct and complete a review of the national minimum wage (NMW) and modern award minimum wages in each financial year (the Review). The Panel must make a NMW order and may set, vary or revoke modern award minimum wages. The NMW order applies to award/agreement free employees 1 and modern award minimum wages are the minimum wages contained in modern awards.2

[2] This Review is being undertaken during a global pandemic. The outbreak of the coronavirus, COVID-19, and the measures put in place to contain the spread of the virus have led to significant shifts in the way work and society is conducted, with substantial economic consequences. Variations have been made to the Review timetable to allow parties to provide submissions regarding the impacts of the pandemic as they have unfolded and to comment on the most recent available data.

[3] The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) March Quarter National Accounts were released on 3 June 2020 and interested parties filed submissions in respect of these data on 5 and 9 June 2020. Final public consultations took place on 10 June 2020.

[4] A key contextual consideration in relation to the present proceedings is the statutory constraints regarding the conduct of Reviews. In particular, section 285(1) provides that the Panel ‘must conduct and complete an annual wage review in each financial year’ (emphasis added). It follows that 30 June 2020 provides the outer limit for the completion of the 2019–20 Review.

[5] As a practical matter our decision had to be published by 19 June 2020, in order to allow sufficient time for draft variation determinations to be published and for interested parties to submit corrections or other amendments to the draft determinations. Given these constraints our decision has not sought to canvass all of the issues raised in the submissions. We have focussed on the issues which the Act requires that we take into account.

[6] This Chapter summarises the matters we have considered, our reasoning, the rates we have set for the NMW order and the determinations we have made regarding modern award minimum wages. Chapter 2 deals with the statutory framework and with what we can and can’t do in a Review. Chapters 3–6 deal with the statutory considerations we are required to take into account. The views expressed in this Chapter should be seen in the context of our decision as a whole.

The Panel’s Approach

[7] We accept that our decision-making process in a Review should be as transparent as possible and that we should disclose the factors which are most relevant in a particular year, and we have done so in this decision.

[8] While we seek to explain our view of the circumstances (including forecasts or projections) prevailing in each Review in comparison with previous years, it is not feasible to quantify the weight given to particular factors in balancing the various considerations prescribed by the Act. Rather, we consider all information about the economic and social environment that is available to inform our decision. The Panel’s approach to its statutory function is encapsulated in the following extract from the Annual Wage Review 2014–15 decision (2014–15 Review decision):

‘In taking into account available economic and social data, the Panel’s approach is broadly to assess the changes in these data from year to year and determine how they inform the statutory criteria. Put another way … if there were no change in the relevant considerations from one year to the next then, all other things being equal, a similar outcome would result.’ 3

[9] Broadly speaking, differently constituted Panels should evaluate the evidence and submissions before them in accordance with a consistent and stable interpretation of the legislative framework. Justice requires consistent decision making unless a difference can be articulated and applied. 4

The Economic Environment

[10] Table 1.1 compares some of the latest major economic indicators with the data at the time of the last Review. As the Commonwealth Budget for 2020–21 is yet to be released, we have used the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) baseline forecasts.

Table 1.1: Budget forecasts and actual outcomes for selected economic indicators, per cent

Information at time of 2018–19 Review			Information at time of 2019–20 Review
Indicator	Data at time of 2018–19 Decision	Budget forecast for 2018–19	Budget forecast for 2019–20	Latest data	RBA forecast for 2019–20	RBA forecast for 2020–21
Gross domestic product	2.3 (Dec qtr 2018)	2¼	2¾	1.4 (Mar qtr 2020)	–8	7
Consumer Price Index	1.3^ (Mar qtr 2019)	1½	2¼	2.2^ (Mar qtr 2020)	–1	2¾
Wage Price Index	2.3 (Mar qtr 2019)	2½	2¾	2.1 (Mar qtr 2020)	2	1½
Unemployment rate	5.1^# (April 2019)	5	5	7.1 (May 2020)	10	8½
Employment growth	2.5^# (April 2019)	2	1¾	–5.4 (May 2020)	–7	4

Source: [2019] FWCFB 3500 at [28]; ABS, Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, Mar 2020, Catalogue No. 5206.0; ABS, Consumer Price Index, Australia, Mar 2020, Catalogue No. 6401.0; ABS, Wage Price Index, Australia, Mar 2020, Catalogue No. 6345.0; ABS, Labour Force, Australia, May 2020, Catalogue No. 6202.0; RBA (2020), Statement on Monetary Policy, May, Appendix: Forecasts.

Note: Data in seasonally adjusted terms unless otherwise indicated. RBA forecasts are percentage changes over the year to the June quarter and are based on the ‘baseline scenario’. ^Data in original terms. ^#Data in trends terms.

[11] Some of the key changes to the economy evident in this Review include:

• gross domestic product (GDP) growth is lower and GDP is expected to fall significantly over 2019–20 before a forecasted strong rebound;

• real net national disposable income (RNNDI) increased by 2.4 per cent over the year to the March quarter 2020 compared with 3.7 per cent over the year to the December quarter 2018; 5

• the profits share of total factor income increased by 0.4 percentage points, from 28.6 per cent in the December quarter 2018 to 29.0 per cent in the March quarter 2020; 6

• labour productivity increased by 1.4 per cent over the year, higher than at the time of the last Review (0.8 per cent); 7

• the unemployment rate is higher, (7.1 per cent compared to 5.1 per cent in trend terms at the time of the last Review). Hours worked reduced by 9.5 per cent between March and April, which was double the decrease in employment (4.7 per cent). The decline in hours worked slowed in May, with hours worked reducing by 0.7 per cent, while employment fell by 1.8 per cent. 8

• the age-adjusted participation rate also declined significantly compared with the time of the last Review; 9

• headline inflation increased significantly, particularly due to effects from the drought and bushfires, as well as COVID-19. 10 Underlying inflation also increased to a lesser extent (the trimmed mean increased from 1.6 per cent over the year to the March quarter 2019, to 1.8 per cent over the year to the March quarter 2020);11 and

• wages growth, as measured by the Wage Price Index (WPI), declined slightly.

[12] The Australian economy is going through a significant downturn and is almost certain to enter a technical recession upon the release of the June quarter ABS National Accounts, the first in almost 30 years. It has been caused by an unprecedented health crisis and the impact of government measures to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 virus. There was also some indication of slowing in the economy before the pandemic, as a result of the bushfires experienced in parts of Australia.

[13] Output, as measured by GDP, fell by 0.3 per cent in the March quarter 2020, and increased by only 1.4 per cent over the year, 12 the lowest result since the global financial crisis in the September quarter 2009 and well below the long-term average of 3.4 per cent.13 The March quarter outcome does not include the full effects of the most restrictive limitations on workplaces and social gatherings, which were implemented from late March. However, the March quarter data does reflect some of the impact of measures announced in early March, and restrictions on international arrivals from some locations in February, including China, that would have impacted the tourism and education sectors, as well as the impact of the bushfires.

[14] Company gross operating profits rose 1.1 per cent in the March quarter 2020 and by 1.5 per cent over the year, considerably lower than the average over the last 5 years
(8.3 per cent). Annual growth was underpinned by mining profits which rose by 3.1 per cent; non-mining profits only increased by 0.5 per cent. 14

[15] Household consumption fell, particularly on services and discretionary items. 15 Consumer confidence, which began to fall from late February, bottomed out in late March, and by early June had recovered most of its losses, though it was still significantly below where it had been at the beginning of the year.16

[16] Similarly, business conditions and confidence dropped significantly in March and had only partially recovered by May. 17 Business investment continued its decline, particularly in the non-mining sector.18

[17] The shock to the labour market is unprecedented. The latest data, for May 2020, show that the unemployment rate increased by 1.9 percentage points in 2 months, to 7.1 per cent; 19 while significant, it does not provide the full picture. The participation rate declined by 3.1 percentage points in 2 months, highlighting the fact that many people left the labour force.20 But for the decline in the participation rate, the unemployment rate would have been higher.

[18] As described by the ABS, there was a larger percentage of employed men and women who worked 0 hours in May 2020 than in previous years, as was also seen in April 2020. 21 That the unemployment rate did not increase further is because these people were still defined as employed, in part because of the JobKeeper payment, and it is likely to increase further as the JobKeeper payment unwinds. Given this, the underemployment rate becomes the more relevant labour market indicator. In April 2020, it increased to 13.8 per cent, the highest rate on record, before declining to 13.1 per cent in May 2020.22

[19] A more detailed assessment of changes in the labour market, on a weekly basis, shows a dramatic fall in the number of jobs between late March and mid-April, before stabilising. 23 These data confirm that at around late March to mid-April, economic activity, the labour market and confidence was at its lowest. We have seen some improvement or stabilisation in these data since late April, but they are still well below pre-COVID-19 levels.

[20] The current circumstances have also made it difficult to assess underlying trends in the data. The ABS has suspended its Labour Force trend series; the WPI is likely to be affected by JobKeeper payments and some components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be difficult to measure as they have been impacted by the restrictions imposed to contain the virus (e.g. changes in the price of international and domestic travel).

[21] One indicator that is likely to be affected by significant shifts in other indicators is labour productivity. The fact that the fall in the number of hours worked was greater than the fall in GDP led to an increase in labour productivity (measured by GDP per hour worked), in the March quarter 2020. 24 Due to the implications of the easing of government restrictions on the labour market and a likely significant fall in GDP in the June quarter, labour productivity growth will probably vary in a way that is unlikely to be indicative of its underlying trend.

[22] The current state of the Australian economy and the challenges that lie ahead are neatly encapsulated in the 2 June 2020 Statement by the RBA Governor on the Board’s monetary policy decision:

‘The Australian economy is going through a very difficult period and is experiencing the biggest economic contraction since the 1930s. In April, total hours worked declined by an unprecedented 9 per cent and more than 600,000 people lost their jobs, with many more people working zero hours. Household spending weakened very considerably and investment plans are being deferred or cancelled.

Notwithstanding these developments, it is possible that the depth of the downturn will be less than earlier expected. The rate of new infections has declined significantly and some restrictions have been eased earlier than was previously thought likely. And there are signs that hours worked stabilised in early May, after the earlier very sharp decline. There has also been a pick-up in some forms of consumer spending.

However, the outlook, including the nature and speed of the expected recovery, remains highly uncertain and the pandemic is likely to have long-lasting effects on the economy. In the period immediately ahead, much will depend on the confidence that people and businesses have about the health situation and their own finances.’ 25

The COVID-19 Pandemic

[23] The COVID-19 pandemic casts a large shadow over the current economic environment.

[24] While predominantly a public health issue, federal and state government-imposed restrictions to contain the spread of the virus, have had a profound economic impact. 26 The restrictions have included travel restrictions (both international and domestic) and social distancing rules. The social and economic consequences of these measures have been unprecedented and have led to business closures and job losses. All but ‘essential workers’ were forced to stop work or modify their work arrangements. These actions have significantly reduced domestic activity and resulted in ‘a large and near simultaneous contraction across the global economy.’27

[25] The restrictions imposed by Federal and State governments; and the range of packages to support households and businesses, are detailed in Appendix 1.

[26] The objective of the measures implemented to contain the virus is to flatten the epidemiological curve (or transmission curve). The ‘curve’ is based on modelling and shows the likely number of people who will be infected by COVID-19 over a period of time. Chart 1.1 is derived from the Australian Government publication ‘Impact of COVID-19: Theoretical modelling of how the health system can respond’.

Chart 1.1: Modelling COVID-19 scenarios

Source: Department of Health (2020), Impact of COVID-19: theoretical modelling of how the health system can respond, Commonwealth Government of Australia, 7 April.

[27] The theoretical modelling finds that an uncontrolled COVID-19 pandemic scenario would overwhelm our health system for many weeks. Quarantine measures and social distancing slows the rate of transmission―which flattens the epidemiological curve.

[28] The restrictions have been successful at flattening the curve and slowing the spread of COVID-19. Most cases in Australia appear to be from people with recent overseas travel (over 60 per cent), 28 with most cases that are locally-acquired able to be linked back to a confirmed case. The fatality rate in Australia remains low (1.4 per cent) compared to the WHO globally-reported rate of 6.5 per cent.29 As of 14 June 2020, Australia did not have widespread community transmission of COVID-19.30 New cases are at a significantly lower level than at the peak in late March.

[29] Chart 1.2 shows how Australia has been able to more quickly and sustainably flatten the transmission curve.

Chart 1.2: New and cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases

Source: Department of Health (2020), Coronavirus (COVID-19) current situation and case numbers, Commonwealth Government of Australia, 14 June.

[30] Chart 1.3 shows the trend of reported confirmed cases of COVID-19 following the 100^th reported confirmed case for selected countries. The chart has a logarithmic scale in order to better visualise the flattening of the curve, as the COVID-19 pandemic exhibits exponential growth.

Chart 1.3: International comparison of COVID-19 confirmed cases

Source: Fair Work Commission modelling, Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, 11 June 2020.

Note: Data generated using the tidycovid19 R code written by Joachim Gassen.

[31] The COVID-19 pandemic has been compared with different periods of economic downturns, 31 but the causes and potential consequences are very different. As described by the Commonwealth Treasury Secretary, Dr Steven Kennedy, this shock is different to the depression of the 1930s and our path to recovery is different:

‘Depression is a very different shock. For this sort of disease-led shock, the nature of the recovery is related to how well we manage the disease, which is hard to predict, but in Australia we’ve obviously done extremely well, which means there is the capability for other countries to do well as well. Then it’s very much the flow-on consequences of the fact that you take economies and then you create this big hole in income for a quarter or two. Depressions are usually more thought of as long, drawn-out periods of very high unemployment, very low growth and dysfunctional credit markets. I’m not predicting a V-shaped recovery in any sense, but the way we enter this and the nature of this shock gives me some hope that if governments respond well, particularly through their fiscal levers, we needn’t have what’s called the L-shaped recovery, and I guess that's probably what people would think of as more depression type economics.’ 32

[32] The speed of the economic recovery is dependent on the health outcomes which in turn affects the ability of governments to remove restrictions. The strictest limitations to contain the spread of the virus were imposed from late March, as the number of confirmed cases increased. Some states and territories began easing these restrictions from late April. By mid-May, all states and territories had begun to reduce the limitations on work and social gatherings, although border controls for most states and territories remain.

[33] In terms of easing restrictions, the Commonwealth Government announced a 3-step plan³³ which aims to have a sustainable ‘COVID safe’ Australia by July 2020. The specific implementation and timeline of the easing of restrictions are decided by state and territory premiers and chief ministers.

[34] In broad terms, step 1 relaxes various baseline restrictions including allowing gatherings of up to 10 people outside and in businesses, having up to 5 people visit at home, some local and regional travel, and people working from home if it suits both workers and their employers. On 29 May, following a National Cabinet meeting, it was announced that the success of the health system in reducing transmission meant states and territories had plans in place to move to Step 2.³⁴ Step 2 allowed gatherings of 20 in homes, businesses and public places, gyms, beauty therapy, cinemas, galleries and amusement parks to open, caravan or camping grounds to open and some interstate travel. Step 3 will be further developed with the specific easing of restrictions being informed by the success of steps 1 and 2 and expert medical advice. Step 3 provisionally allowed gatherings of up to 100 people, return to workplaces, opening up of nightclubs, food courts and saunas and resumption of interstate travel. On 12 June 2020, the Prime Minister updated step 3 and stated that we are on track to complete the 3-step process in July. 35 The updated step 3 removes the cap of 100 persons for indoor gatherings and is replaced by a 4 square metre rule for those premises (applying to each room). For outdoor events, a capacity of 25 per cent of the capacity of the stadium will be allowed.

[35] Despite the success in flattening the curve, health experts and the Commonwealth Government have advised that some level of restrictions on movement and gatherings, as well as border controls and social distancing measures, are likely to continue for some time, 36 possibly until a vaccine is developed.37 The highly infectious nature of COVID-19 and concerns about a second wave of infections add to the uncertainty.38

[36] The form and shape of our pathway to recovery is uncertain and heavily contested. However, it is generally accepted that the pathway to recovery is largely dependent on how well the spread of the virus is contained, which will affect the extent to which restrictions can be eased with a consequent impact on business and consumer confidence.

[37] The pace of recovery beyond the June quarter 2020 is especially uncertain. 39 As the RBA observes in its May 2020 Statement on Monetary Policy:

‘It is quite plausible that the current economic disruption will have some long-lasting effects, not only because it will take some time to restore workforces and re-establish businesses but also because it could also affect mindsets and the behaviours of consumers and businesses. This could result in structural change in the economy. Changes in the financial position of households and businesses could also have long-lasting effects.’ 40

[38] The RBA’s May Statement on Monetary Policy presents various scenarios, reflecting what it describes as the ‘incredibly uncertain’ outlook. 41 A ‘plausible baseline scenario’ sees restrictions mostly removed by the end of September, apart from international travel. With the spread of the virus ‘limited’, growth is considered ‘to turn around in the September quarter and the recovery would strengthen from there.’42 The RBA comments that ‘[t]he duration of the lockdowns and how quickly they are eased will affect the size of the economic contraction and the speed of the subsequent recovery.’43

[39] In the RBA’s baseline scenario, GDP growth is forecast to recover in the second half of 2020, led by consumption, although the very large declines in the March and June quarters would still produce a year-ended decline over 2020. Growth is expected to be stronger over 2021 as business and dwelling investment gradually recover, although the level of GDP by mid-2022 is anticipated to still be below the level expected at the time of the RBA’s February Statement on Monetary Policy. Based on these conditions, the RBA expects the unemployment rate to decline substantially from its June 2020 peak of around 10 per cent but to remain above its pre COVID-19 level in 2 years’ time. Underlying inflation is expected to remain below 2 per cent over the next couple of years. 44 The RBA’s baseline forecasts are summarised in Table 1.2.

Table 1.2: Output growth and inflation baseline forecasts, year-ended, per cent ^a,b

Dec 2019	Jun 2020	Dec 2020	Jun 2021	Dec 2021	Jun 2022
GDP	2.2	–8	–6	7	6	5
(previous)	(2)	(2)	(2¾)	(3)	(3)	(3)
Unemployment rate^c	5.2	10	9	8½	7½	6½
(previous)	(5.2)	(5¼)	(5)	(5)	(4¾)	(4¾)
CPI	1.8	–1	¼	2¾	1¼	1½
(previous)	(1.8)	(1¾)	(1¾)	(1¾)	(2)	(2)
Trimmed mean	1.6	1½	1¼	1¼	1¼	1½
(previous)	(1.6)	(1¾)	(1¾)	(1¾)	(2)	(2)
Year-average
2019	2019/20	2020	2020/21	2021	2021/22
GDP growth	1.8	–1	–5	–3	4	6
(previous)	(1¾)	(2)	(2¼)	(2¾)	(3)	(3)

Source: RBA (2020), Statement on Monetary Policy, May, p. 89, Table 6.1.

Note: (a) The cash rate is assumed to remain at its current level, with other elements of the RBA’s monetary stimulus package, including the 0.25 per cent target for the 3-year government bond yield, assumed to remain consistent with current settings. Other technical assumptions include the TWI at 57, A$ at US$0.64 and Brent crude oil price at US$35 per barrel; shaded regions are historical data; figures in parentheses show the corresponding forecasts in the February 2020 Statement on Monetary Policy. (b) Rounding varies: Activity to the nearest whole number; unemployment to the nearest half point; wages and prices to the nearest quarter point. (c) Average rate in the quarter.

[40] Based on the declining infection rate and earlier easing of restrictions, the RBA Governor has observed that since the above forecast scenario was published, conditions have been ‘perhaps fractionally better than the baseline’ scenario 45 and that ‘it is possible that the depth of the downturn will be less than earlier expected’.46

[41] The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been felt across the economy; but the extent of its impact has not been consistent across all sectors of the economy. While some industries have been substantially affected, other sectors have been affected to a much lesser extent.

[42] Using administrative data from the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) and published by the ABS, Charts 1.4 and 1.5 show the percentage changes in the number of payroll jobs and total wages for the 19 industries based on the Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification (ANZSIC). The industries are presented at the division or 1-digit level as more detailed data for both jobs and wages are not available. Reference is made to these data in Ai Group’s reply submission. 47

[43] The size of each circle reflects the total number of filled jobs in each industry―collected using ABS Labour Accounts data from the March quarter 2020. Industries with a larger number of jobs will be represented by larger circles. For example, Health care and social assistance has the largest number of filled jobs (1.96 million) and is represented by the largest circle, while Electricity, gas, water and waste services (124 700 filled jobs) has the smallest circle. 48

[44] The decline in jobs is indicated along the horizontal axis. The change in wages is indicated by the vertical axis, though this data is less informative because of the effects of the JobKeeper scheme. The period covered is between 14 March 2020, when the 100^th case of COVID-19 was confirmed in Australia, and 30 May 2020.

[45] The decline in total jobs fall broadly into 3 industry clusters (Chart 1.4):

• Upper cluster―where total jobs fell by 29.1 per cent in Accommodation and food services and by 26.3 per cent in Arts and recreation services (a weighted average 49 of
–28.6 per cent);

• Central cluster―where job losses range from 10.5 per cent in Information media and telecommunications to 4.0 per cent in Manufacturing (a weighted average of –5.9 per cent); and

• Lower cluster―where the impact on jobs range from an increase 0.4 per cent in Electricity, gas, water and waste services to an increase of 0.5 per cent in Finance and insurance services (a weighted average of 0.5 per cent).

Chart 1.4: Change in employee jobs and total wages between 14 March and 30 May 2020, by industry clusters

Source: Statistical report (version 13), 17 June 2020, Chart 6.10; ABS, Weekly Payroll Jobs and Wages in Australia, Week ending 30 May 2020, Catalogue No. 6160.0.55.001; ABS, Labour Account Australia, March 2020, Catalogue No. 6150.0.55.003.

Note: Circle size reflects number of filled jobs (i.e. larger circles represent industries with higher number of filled jobs).

[46] The impact on the industry sectors in the central and lower clusters is shown more clearly in Chart 1.5.

Chart 1.5: Central and lower industry clusters, change in employee jobs and total wages between 14 March and 30 May 2020

Note: Circle size reflects number of filled jobs (i.e. larger circles represent industries with higher number of filled jobs). Chart excludes Accommodation and food services and Arts and recreation services.

[47] The industries in the central cluster have clearly been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic (though to a lesser extent than the impact on Accommodation and Food services and Arts and recreation services). These industries are:

• Agriculture, forestry and fishing;

• Construction;

• Retail trade;

• Transport, postal and warehousing;

• Manufacturing;

• Mining;

• Wholesale trade;

• Professional, scientific and technical services;

• Public administration and safety;

• Education and training;

• Health care and social assistance;

• Rental, hiring and real estate services;

• Administrative and support services;

• Information media and telecommunications; and

• Other services.

[48] We acknowledge that these aggregate numbers mask considerable intra sectoral variance.

[49] We deal with the industries in the ‘lower cluster’ later.

[50] The ‘clusters’ identified in Charts 1.4 and 1.5 are consistent with other data.

[51] In the March quarter 2020, total industry output or Gross Value Added (GVA) declined by 0.3 per cent and gross operating profits rose by 1.1 per cent, while over the year total GVA increased by 1.4 per cent and profits rose by 1.5 per cent. The change in output and profit growth 50 varied significantly between each of the industry clusters.

[52] Industries in the lower cluster had the highest growth in GVA and profits in the March quarter 2020, while industries in the upper cluster experienced the largest declines, broadly consistent with the decline in jobs and wages.

[53] While the weighted average change in GVA and profits in each cluster are broadly consistent with the changes observed in jobs and wages―that initially defined each cluster―
this is not to say industries in the same cluster had identical or even similar experiences in the March quarter 2020.

[54] GVA and profit data are current up to the March quarter 2020, and only capture the early impacts of COVID-19 related restrictions and effects, while data on total jobs and wages capture the effects to late May 2020.

[55] Other data produced by the ABS to capture the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on businesses also provide some insights. For example, businesses were asked how they expected COVID-19 to adversely impact them over the next 2 months. Between 22 April 2020 and
28 April 2020, 69 per cent of businesses that were currently trading reported that ‘reduced demand for goods and services’ were expected to have an adverse impact, while 72 per cent anticipated ‘reduced cash flow’, and 41 per cent anticipated a ‘reduced ability to pay operating expenses’. 51 Similar to the indicators already discussed, the weighted average change in these anticipated adverse impacts varied across industry clusters:

• Upper cluster―83.8 per cent of businesses reported that they anticipated reduced demand for goods and services, 87.3 per cent anticipated reduced cash flow, and 70.2 per cent anticipated a reduced ability to pay operating expenses, all well above the all industries average;

• Central cluster―68.9 per cent reported that they anticipated reduced demand for goods and services, 71.8 per cent anticipated reduced cash flow, and 40.9 per cent anticipated a reduced ability to pay operating expenses, around the all industries average; and

• Lower cluster―41.6 per cent reported that they anticipated reduced demand for goods and services, 44.0 per cent anticipated reduced cash flow, and 18.8 per cent anticipated a reduced ability to pay operating expenses, all below the all industries average. 52

[56] These data show that industries in the lower cluster had the lowest proportion of businesses reporting anticipated adverse impacts, while industries in the upper cluster reported the highest proportion of businesses expected to be adversely impacted (broadly consistent with the decline in jobs and wages across industries). However, as with GVA and profit outcomes, there was variation within the industry clusters with regard to the adverse impacts anticipated by industries.

[57] Modern awards can be ‘mapped’ to the industry sectors identified in Charts 1.4 and 1.5. This exercise of mapping modern awards to industries is based on a project undertaken by Commission staff in 2012 to assist with statistical analysis of modern awards. 53 We turn first to the modern awards in the ‘lower cluster’ of industries, least impacted by the pandemic (in terms of job losses and fall in wages).

(i) The ‘lower cluster’

[58] The ‘lower cluster’ consists of the following industries:

• Financial and insurance services; and

• Electricity, gas, water and waste services.

[59] The following modern awards correspond to the industries in the lower cluster:

• Banking, Finance and Insurance Award 2020;

• Electrical Power Industry Award 2020;

• Gas Industry Award 2020; and

• Water Industry Award 2020.

[60] To the modern awards set out at [59] above we would add the following awards covering frontline health care and social assistance workers, teachers and child care workers, and other essential services:

• Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Services Award 2020;

• Aged Care Award 2010;

• Ambulance and Patient Transport Industry Award 2020;

• Cemetery Industry Award 2020;

• Children’s Services Award 2010;

• Cleaning Services Award 2020;

• Corrections and Detention (Private Sector) Award 2020;

• Educational Services (Schools) General Staff Award 2020;

• Educational Services (Teachers) Award 2010;

• Fire Fighting Industry Award 2020;

• Funeral Industry Award 2010;

• Health Professionals and Support Services Award 2020;

• Medical Practitioners Award 2020;

• Nurses Award 2010;

• Pharmacy Industry Award 2020;

• Social, Community, Home Care and Disability Services Industry Award 2010; and

• State Government Agencies Award 2020.

[61] The employers and employees covered by these modern awards have continued working during the pandemic, to provide essential services to the community.

[62] In relation to the Cleaning Services Award 2020 the current pandemic has put increased focus on personal hygiene as well as cleaning of facilities, workplaces and public spaces, and the demand for cleaning services is likely to increase. 54 For example, several state governments have announced initiatives to increase cleaning, including:

• the NSW Government in late April 2020 announced a cleaners’ package to improve the cleaning of public facilities such as schools and transport, where cleaning efforts have increased by 83 000 hours across the transport network; 55

• the Victorian Government in early May 2020 announced a program that, together with several councils across Victoria, would support jobs and the redeployment of workers including into cleaning crews; 56 and

• the South Australian Government announced in mid-March 2020 that it would increase cleaning schedules across public transport, including extra cleaning crews. 57

[63] We have therefore regarded cleaners as part of the frontline response in preventing the spread of COVID-19 and in the present circumstances can be considered an essential service.

[64] We now turn to the ‘upper cluster’ of industries―those most affected by the pandemic (in terms of job losses and wage falls).

(ii) The ‘upper cluster’

[65] Chart 1.4 identifies 2 industry sectors in the ‘upper cluster’:

• Accommodation and food services; and

• Arts and recreation services.

[66] The following modern awards are mapped to the Accommodation and food services industry:

• Hospitality Industry (General) Award 2020;

• Restaurant Industry Award 2020;

• Fast Food Industry Award 2010; and

• Registered and Licensed Clubs Award 2010.

[67] The modern awards relating to the Arts and recreation services industry are:

• Amusement, Events and Recreation Award 2020;

• Live Performance Award 2010;

• Fitness Industry Award 2010;

• Sporting Organisations Award 2020;

• Racing Clubs Events Award 2010;

• Racing Industry Ground Maintenance Award 2020;

• Horse and Greyhound Training Award 2020;

• Hospitality Industry (General) Award 2020; and

• Travelling Shows Award 2020.

[68] The modern awards mapped to Accommodation and food services and Arts and recreation services do not necessarily constitute all modern awards that could be considered to be most affected by the COVID-19 outbreak.

[69] It is plain that some businesses and employees within the Transport, postal and warehousing industry (in the ‘central cluster’) have been substantially impacted by the restrictions imposed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The government enforced measures to reduce the spread of the virus have had a substantial impact on the aviation sector with restrictions likely to be maintained for some time. Unfortunately, the impact on both jobs and wages within this sector cannot be identified from the available data at the ANZSIC 1-digit level. However, it is abundantly clear that the restrictions imposed have caused significant hardship for these businesses and their employees. The same observation may be made in relation to the tourism and events sectors and in some other services, such as dry cleaning and beauty therapy. Accordingly, these sectors along with Accommodation and food services and Arts and recreation services may be characterised as the ‘most affected’ by the COVID-19 pandemic.

[70] The relevant aviation and tourism sector modern awards are:

• Air Pilots Award 2020;

• Aircraft Cabin Crew Award 2020;

• Airline Operations-Ground Staff award 2020;

• Airport Employees Award 2020;

• Alpine Resorts Award 2020;

• Marine Tourism and Charter Vessels Award 2020;

• Professional Diving Industry (Recreational) Award 2020; and

• Wine Industry Award 2010.

[71] A case can also be made for the inclusion of Retail trade in the cluster of sectors most affected by the pandemic.

[72] Retail trade has seen varied effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, some of which can be seen in the more recent data on turnover, output, profits and changes in the number of jobs. While COVID-19 has provided a positive impact in turnover on some parts of the retail industry, other parts of the industry have experienced dramatic declines.

[73] While retail turnover rose sharply by 8.5 per cent (the largest monthly increase recorded) in March 2020, 58 the increase was not evident across all industry subgroups. It reflected significant increases in areas such as Other specialised food retailing (30.5 per cent); Liquor retailing (30.3 per cent); Supermarket and grocery stores (23.0 per cent); and Pharmaceutical, cosmetic and toiletry goods retailing (22.3 per cent). This coincided with the panic buying that preceded the implementation of a number of social distancing restrictions in March. However, this increase was temporary, with retail turnover declining by an unprecedented 17.7 per cent in April 2020 (the largest monthly decline on record), resulting in total turnover lower than the pre-COVID period.59 The largest declines in turnover were seen in Clothing retailing (–56.0 per cent); and Footwear and other personal accessory retailing (−49.3 per cent).60

[74] Output in Retail trade increased in the March quarter 2020, while total output declined. 61 Gross operating profits also increased in the March quarter 2020 above the all industries average.62 However, the relatively positive results in output and profits likely reflect the temporary spike in turnover in March 2020, driven by increases in some sub-sectors (particularly Food retailing), and not necessarily growth across the wider industry.

[75] This variation within Retail trade is also shown in the jobs data. Between 14 March 2020 and 30 May 2020, total jobs in Retail trade fell by 9.8 per cent. At the 2-digit subdivision level, Fuel retailing was the only subdivision to experience an increase in jobs (6.1 per cent), while the decline in Food retailing (–7.2 per cent) and Motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts retailing (–6.1 per cent) was smaller than the Retail trade average. Larger declines were in Other store-based retailing (–12.4 per cent); and Non-store retailing and retail commission based buying and/or selling (–15.1 per cent). 63

[76] In its supplementary submission, the Australian Retailers Association (ARA) refer to data on retail turnover and note that retailers in discretionary categories are facing significant challenges. 64 As we have shown, industries that were subject to forced closures such as Footwear and other personal accessory retailing saw significant falls in turnover. However, other subsectors less subject to closures (such as Fuel retailing) have generally performed better.

[77] The modern awards which can be broadly characterised as relating to Retail trade are:

• Commercial Sales Award 2020;

• Dry Cleaning and Laundry Industry Award 2020;

• General Retail Industry Award 2010;

• Hair and Beauty Industry Award 2010;

• Mannequins and Models Award 2020;

• Nursery Award 2020; and

• Vehicle Repair, Services and Retail Award 2020.

[78] In relation to the Vehicle Repair, Services and Retail Award 2020, a Full Bench of the Commission varied this award on 11 May 2020 to insert a new schedule containing a number of measures designed to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on the employers and employees covered by the award. In its decision the Full Bench referred to data released by the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCIA) on 6 May 2020 which show that:

• A total of 38 926 new vehicle sales were recorded in Australia for the month of April. This figure represents a fall of 48.5 per cent over the same period last year (April 2019 saw 75 550 sales).

• The fall in April 2020 sales represents the largest single decrease in sales in any month since sales data collection was commenced by FCIA in 1991.

• Year to date new vehicle sales for 2020 have totalled to 272 287 sales, down from 344 088 in 2019. This equates to a 20.9 per cent decline. 65

[79] We deal later with the modern awards which align with the ‘central cluster’ of industries.

The Submissions

[80] The Panel received submissions from the Australian Government, several state governments, bodies that represent the interests of employees and employers, other entities and individuals. These proposals are set out in Appendix 2. The proposals in respect of the adjustment of the NMW and modern award minimum wages were sharply polarized. Some parties proposed significant increases to the NMW and modern award minimum wages, well in excess of the current and expected inflation rate, while the various employer parties proposed that there be no increase at all to the NMW or to modern award minimum wages.

[81] The Australian Government, most state governments, the Housing Industry Association (HIA) and the Centre for Future Work did not propose a specific quantum increase to the NMW and modern award minimum wages. 66

[82] The Australian Government urged the Panel to take a cautious approach in light of the continuously emerging and wide-ranging potential impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and to prioritise keeping Australians in jobs and maintaining the viability of businesses. 67

[83] Whilst the Australian Council of Social Services (ACOSS) did not recommend a specific increase, it argued that the minimum wage should be set well above poverty levels, with an appropriate benchmark being the full-time median wage and a reasonable goal being to restore the NMW level to 60 per cent of the full-time median wage. 68

[84] The Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU) proposed a uniform increase of 4 per cent to the NMW and modern award minimum wages. 69

[85] The Australian Catholic Bishops Conference (ACBC) proposed an increase of 4 per cent in the NMW and a minimum 4 per cent increase to the C13 and C10 rates provided for in modern awards. 70

[86] Although the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association (SDA) did not propose a specific quantum, they supported the supplementary submission of the ACTU 71 and argued that if an increase in minimum wages was deferred so too should the scheduled reduction in Sunday penalty rates.72

[87] The Victorian Government proposed an increase of at least 3 per cent to the NMW and ‘a fair and reasonable increase to all other [modern] award minimum wages’. 73

[88] The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI), 74 Australian Industry Group (Ai Group),75 National Retail Association (NRA),76 National Farmers Federation (NFF),77 Restaurant and Catering Industry Association (R&CA)78 and ARA79 proposed that there be no increase to the NMW and modern award minimum wages.

[89] ACCI submitted that if there were to be an increase, a common approach should be taken to the NMW and modern award minimum wages as much as possible and that any increase should be ‘genuinely moderate’ and should not take effect from 1 July 2020. 80 ARA also proposed a delayed operative date for retail businesses until 1 February 2021, if the Panel determines that an increase in wages should occur.81 ARA also submitted that should an increase be awarded, that it be no more than the CPI for the preceding 12 months.82

[90] Master Grocers Australia Limited (MGA) submitted that no increase be awarded, however, if the Panel saw fit to provide an increase that any increase be postponed. 83

[91] The South Australian Wine Industry Association (SAWIA) did not advocate for an increase in minimum wages but submitted that if the Panel was minded to award an increase it should be a flat dollar increase no higher than the national inflation rate. 84

Consideration

[92] As we have mentioned, ACCI, Ai Group and other employer organisations submit that arising from this Review, there should be no increase to the NMW or to modern award minimum wages. We accept that the economic considerations we are required to take into account weigh in favour of greater moderation in terms of the outcome of the Review.

[93] The very high level of underemployment warrants more weight being given to the potential impact of increasing minimum wages on hiring and re-employment. Further, in a recession, when aggregate demand is weak, the employment effects of increases in minimum wages are likely to be more significant and the capacity of employers to absorb wage increases or to pass them on to consumers in the form of higher prices is more limited. However, there are some countervailing considerations.

[94] The ACTU contends that:

‘[a]s restrictions begin to lift, it is hoped that conditions improve for all Australians that have been affected. In our view, a real lift to minimum wages will help rather than hinder that transition’. 85

[95] Further, in its supplementary submission the ACTU states:

‘Wages play two different roles in the economy. While they are a key cost to employers, they are also a major source of income for consumers. If the real incomes of all or a significant proportion of consumers are reduced, aggregate demand for goods and services will decline. As a result, the demand for labour curve of the individual enterprise moves down to the left (a reduction in demand). The Panel is required to take into account the impact of its decision on the Australian economy. The decision must therefore take into account the macroeconomic impact…

If real wages were to fall for the low paid even further as result of the Commission decision (i.e. less than rate of inflation over the coming year) there would be negative macroeconomic consequences and we would be repeating the mistakes of the Great Depression.’ 86

[96] The essence of the submission put is that increasing minimum wages is likely to increase aggregate demand.

[97] This issue was discussed in the Annual Wage Review 2016–17 decision (2016–17 decision) and Annual Wage Review 2017–18 decision (2017–18 decision). In those decisions the Panel found that the impact of an increase in minimum wages was ‘not likely to be comparable to that of a public sector macroeconomic stimulus’ 87 but was ‘likely to have some effect on consumer demand that needs to be taken into account’.88

[98] We accept that the impact of an increase in minimum wages on aggregate demand, albeit modest, is relevant because we are obliged to take into account the likely impact of any exercise of modern award powers on, relevantly, the performance of the national economy (s.134(1)(h)).

[99] The ACTU also contends that economic conditions are improving. The ACTU’s position is encapsulated in the following extract from its response to supplementary submissions of 5 June 2020:

‘Whilst the situation continues to evolve, there are indications that performance of the economy has been better than expected when measures were first being developed and implemented to respond to the pandemic, and that the recovery is beginning…

In our submission, it would be damaging to the national economy and particularly damaging to businesses offering low value/high turnover goods and services like restaurants, cafés and shops, to lock down wages … Anything less than an increase that accounts for rises in prices and living costs would result in a fall in real consumer income growth and purchasing power. In circumstances where key economic need is to rebuild domestic demand for goods and services, a real wage cut is the least favourable option.’ 89

[100] We acknowledge that there are some indications that the economy is beginning to recover. There has been some improvement, or at least stabilisation, in the labour market data since late April, though the performance of the labour market is still well below pre COVID-19 levels. But we do not wish to overstate the significance of these matters. As noted in the 2 June 2020 Statement by the RBA Governor on the Board’s Monetary Policy decision, ‘…the outlook, including the nature and speed of the expected recovery, remains highly uncertain and the pandemic is likely to have long lasting effects on the economy’. 90

[101] In our view there are significant downside risks in the period ahead. These include that the international outlook remains highly uncertain, the future of fiscal support to the domestic economy (including through JobKeeper) is unknown and there is the risk of a second wave of COVID-19 infection and the reimposition of extensive restrictions. As to the last point, the
June 2020 OECD Economic Outlook (Preliminary Version) notes in regard to Australia that:

‘… should widespread contagion resume, with a return of lockdowns, confidence would suffer and cash-flow would be strained. In that double-hit scenario, GDP could fall by 6.3% in 2020. Even in the absence of a second outbreak, GDP could fall by 5% in 2020’. 91

[102] In sum, the economic considerations weigh in favour of greater moderation in terms of the outcome of the Review. But, as we set out in Chapter 2, the various economic considerations 92 are not the only matters we are required to take into account. Both the minimum wages objective and the modern awards objective require the Panel to take into account:

• promoting social inclusion through increased workforce participation; 93

• relative living standards and the needs of the low paid; 94 and

• the principle of equal remuneration for work of equal or comparable value. 95

[103] In giving effect to the modern awards objective, we must also take into account ‘the need to encourage collective bargaining’ (s.134(1)(b)).

[104] These statutory considerations we are required to take into account inform the evaluation of what might constitute ‘a fair and relevant minimum safety net of terms and conditions’ and ‘a safety net of fair minimum wages’. Fairness in this context includes the perspective of employees and employers, 96 and the Act requires the Panel to take into account all of the relevant statutory considerations.97

[105] A degree of tension exists between some of the considerations we are required to take into account. For example, the extent to which minimum wage increases are able to meet the needs of the low paid may, depending on the magnitude of the increase and the prevailing circumstances, be constrained by the potential impact of such increases on employment. This is particularly relevant in the present context.

[106] We deal with ‘relative living standards and the needs of the low paid’ in Chapter 4. Our overall assessment is that while the relative living standards of NMW and award-reliant employees have improved over recent years, some low-paid award-reliant employee households have disposable incomes less than the 60 per cent of median income poverty line. Further, many household types are also likely to have disposable incomes that do not reach the threshold of the relevant minimum income for healthy living (MIHL) budget.

[107] We also acknowledge that there are limitations with measures of equivalised disposable household income when assessing poverty, as they are used to assess the circumstances of a selected household type, rather than individual circumstances. 98 The poverty line essentially measures inequality at the lower end of the income distribution and does not measure observed needs or capacity to meet these needs, which is better indicated by measures of deprivation and financial stress.99

[108] In support of its proposal that we award no increase in the Review, ACCI relies on the increases in the NMW and modern award minimum wages in recent Reviews, noting that they have increased at a faster rate than the WPI and other measures of average wages. ACCI contends that the increases from recent Review decisions:

‘… provide NMW-workers with a buffer that enables them to absorb a small or no increase in the NMW and award minimum wage at a time of massive financial crisis, while still maintaining a reasonable standard of living.’ 100

[109] Further, in its supplementary submission, ACCI submits:

‘The Panel can make the no increase decision in 2020 we propose safe in the knowledge that employees will not be worse off, as the strong growth in purchasing power over the past three years has created a buffer that should allow a 12 month period with no increase balanced on the weight of considerations to be taken into account.’ 101

[110] The suggestion that recent Review decisions have created a ‘buffer’ such that low-paid employees will not be worse off if we grant no increase seems to presume that these employees have put aside a portion of the recent increases against the eventuality of more difficult times. We doubt that this is so.

[111] The ABS Australian National Accounts: Distribution of Household Income, Consumption and Wealth, 2003–04 to 2017–18, provide data on disposable income, consumption, and savings by household income quintiles in 2017–18. That data show that while household consumption and savings rise with income, consumption rises by less than income, which means that savings increase as income rises. The lowest income quintile spent more than they earned on average and did not achieve any savings. 102

[112] These data show that households in the lowest household income quintile have a higher propensity to consume and a lower propensity to save relative to other households. 103

[113] Further, the latest year for which data are available show that the proportion of low-paid households experiencing financial stress has increased. Some low-paid households are plainly experiencing significant disadvantage. Research commissioned for this Review found that there was a higher proportion of employees who are low-paid, both low-paid and award-reliant or higher-paid and award-reliant, reporting financial difficulties compared with higher-paid and non-award employees. 104 An increase in minimum wages would assist these employees to better meet their needs.

[114] Contrary to ACCI’s submission, a decision to grant no increase in this Review would mean that the living standards of low-paid award-reliant employees would fall. The requirement to take into account relative living standards and the needs of the low paid supports an increase in the NMW and modern award minimum wages.

[115] Gender pay equity also favours an increase in minimum wages. Women are more likely to be in low-paid employment and are more likely to be paid at the award rate. 105 Further, higher-paid award-reliant employees are more likely to be female (58.7 per cent) than male (41.3 per cent).106

[116] As we have mentioned, one of the matters we are required to take into account is ‘the need to encourage collective bargaining.’ We accept that there has been a decline in current enterprise agreements, but a range of factors impact on the propensity to engage in collective bargaining, many of which are unrelated to increases in the NMW and modern award minimum wages. Given the complexity of factors which may contribute to decision making about whether or not to bargain, we are unable to predict the precise impact of our decision on bargaining.

[117] The increases we have determined in this Review may impact on bargaining in different sectors in different ways and we cannot be satisfied that the increase we have determined will encourage collective bargaining. We have taken this into account along with the other statutory considerations in determining the outcome in this Review.

[118] A number of other matters are relevant to the outcome of the Review.

[119] In addition to minimum wages, the tax-transfer system also has a significant role to play in alleviating earnings inequality and assisting low-paid workers to meet their needs. Before the onset of COVID-19, tax-transfer changes which had taken effect in the current Review period have, broadly speaking, provided a benefit to low-paid households. The various economic assistance packages introduced by the Australian Government in response to the COVID-19 pandemic have also benefitted low-paid households. We discuss these changes in more detail in Chapter 4.

[120] These changes are a moderating factor on our assessment of the appropriate level of the NMW and modern award minimum wages arising from this Review. But, as determined in previous Review decisions, it is not appropriate to apply a direct, quantifiable, discount to the increase in the NMW and modern award minimum wages we would have awarded in the absence of such changes in the tax-transfer system. 107

[121] In its supplementary submission in reply, the SDA submits:

‘If the Panel is minded to agree with the NRA that employees in the sector ought to have no wage increase, there would nonetheless be a reasonable basis for the Commission to initiate a proceeding to consider similarly deferring any further reduction in Sunday penalty rates.’ 108

[122] The penalty rate reductions to which the SDA refers form part of the broad context in which the Review is conducted but we have not given them significant weight. Further, 3 specific points may be made about the SDA’s submission.

[123] First, the Panel cannot defer a reduction in penalty rates under an award in the course of a Review. To ‘defer’ a reduction in penalty rates, the award terms specifying the reduced penalty rates and when they apply would have to be varied and the Panel is confined to reviewing ‘modern award minimum wages’ and making determinations ‘varying modern awards to set, vary or revoke modern award minimum wages’. ‘Modern award minimum wages’ are defined in s.284(3) as the ‘rates of minimum wages in modern awards, including … wage rates for junior employees … casual loadings … and piece rates.’ ‘Modern award minimum wages’ do not include ‘penalty rates’. The two are separately dealt with in ss.139(1)(a) and (e) of the Act and were distinguished by the Full Bench in the Penalty Rates Decision. 109

[124] Second, the Penalty Rates Decision 110 provides for the phased reduction of Sunday penalty rates in certain awards in the hospitality and retail sectors which will reduce the employment costs of some employers covered by the modern awards affected by the decision.111 However, as noted by the Panel in last year’s Review decision, the Penalty Rates decision only applies to a small number of modern awards.112

[125] Finally, we would also observe that there have also been other changes to modern awards that have increased employment costs. It is particularly relevant to note that in addition to the Sunday penalty rate reductions highlighted by the SDA, a subsequent Full Bench increased the penalty rates for casuals for Saturday work and for evening work on Monday to Friday. 113

[126] We have determined that it is appropriate to increase the NMW. Having regard to the proposed NMW and the other relevant considerations, we also consider that it is appropriate to adjust modern award minimum wages.

[127] As to the form of the increase, past flat dollar increases in modern award minimum wages have compressed award relativities and reduced the gains from skill acquisition. A percentage increase will avoid further compression and will particularly benefit women workers, because at the higher award classification levels women are substantially more likely than men to be paid the minimum award rate and are less likely to be subject to collective agreements. 114

[128] The Act does not compel the variation of modern award minimum wages in all modern awards. The Panel has a discretion to vary some or all modern award minimum wages in the context of a Review. However, in exercising that discretion considerations of fairness and stability tell against varying the quantum of any adjustment to modern award minimum wages on an award by award basis. As the Panel observed in the Annual Wage Review 2012–13 decision (2012–13) Review decision:

‘If differential treatment was afforded to particular industries this would distort award relativities and lead to disparate wage outcomes for award-reliant employees with similar or comparable levels of skill ... It is also relevant that in establishing and maintaining the minimum wages safety net, the Panel must take into account the principle of equal remuneration for work of equal or comparable value. Such a principle supports the determination of consistent minimum rates for work of equal or comparable value. The maintenance of consistent minimum wages in modern awards and the need to ensure a stable and sustainable modern award system would be undermined if the Panel too readily acceded to requests for differential treatment.’ 115

[129] These matters have led us to determine a uniform percentage increase. We now turn to the quantum of the increase.

[130] In our view awarding an increase of the magnitude proposed by the ACTU (and ACBC and the Victorian Government) in the present economic circumstances, would pose a real risk of disemployment and of adversely affecting the employment opportunities of low-skilled and young workers.

[131] We acknowledge that any increase we award which is less than increases in prices and living costs would amount to a real wage cut. Such an outcome would mean that many award-reliant employees, particularly low-paid employees, would be less able to meet their needs. For some households such an outcome would lead to further disadvantage and may place them at greater risk of moving into poverty.

[132] The main measures of inflation are the CPI and underlying inflation. There are 2 measures of underlying inflation―the trimmed mean and weighted median. Underlying inflation is calculated to remove volatility in the quarterly price changes in the CPI due to large, irregular price movements to determine the underlying trend.

[133] The outbreak of COVID-19 and the related containment measures are likely to reduce inflation in the near term. 116

[134] The RBA only publishes forecasts for the CPI and the trimmed mean. The outcomes and forecasts for these indicators are presented in the Statistical Report—Annual Wage Review 2019–20 (Statistical report). 117 As updated forecasts are yet to be released by the Commonwealth Treasury, the only official forecasts available are from the RBA, which are set out in Table 1.3.

Table 1.3: RBA forecasts for inflation, year ended

Dec 2019	Jun 2020	Dec 2020	Jun 2021	Dec 2021	Jun 2022
Indicator	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)	(%)
CPI	1.8	–1	¼	2¾	1¼	1½
Trimmed mean	1.6	1½	1¼	1¼	1¼	1½

Source: Statistical report (version 13), 17 June 2020, Table 14.4; RBA (2020), Statement on Monetary Policy, May, p. 89, Table 6.1.

[135] The CPI is forecast to increase by only ¼ per cent over the year to the December quarter 2020 before increasing to 2¾ per cent over the year to the June quarter 2021. The trimmed mean is expected to increase by 1½ per cent over the year to the June quarter 2020. It is forecast to then fall to 1¼ per cent in the second half of 2020 and in 2021.

[136] Because of the uncertainty around forecasts, the RBA has produced 3 sets of scenarios. Table 1.3 reflects the RBA’s ‘baseline scenario’. The RBA’s second scenario envisages a faster recovery, in which it is anticipated that ‘the stronger recovery would be consistent with a faster pick up in inflation over the next few years, albeit from a low starting point’. 118 In the third scenario, a slower recovery, the RBA expects that inflation would remain low for longer.119

[137] A related but conceptually different measure for assessing price changes is the ABS Living Cost Index (LCI). The LCI is used to assess changes over time in the purchasing power of the after-tax incomes of households. It is therefore concerned with measuring the impact of changes in prices on the out-of-pocket expenses incurred by households to gain access to consumer goods and services. 120 While this is derived for a number of different household types, we focus on that for employee households (i.e. whose principal source of income is from wages and salaries).

[138] The latest outcomes for each indicator are presented in Table 1.4. The highest increase in the March quarter 2020 was in the trimmed mean and weighted median, however, the CPI increased by more over the year. The outcome for the LCI for employee households was lower than the CPI and measures of underlying inflation in the March quarter 2020 and over the year.

Table 1.4: Quarterly and annual changes in measures of prices and living costs, March quarter 2020

Quarterly	Annual
Indicator	(%)	(%)
CPI	0.3	2.2
Trimmed mean	0.5	1.8
Weighted median	0.5	1.7
LCI (employees)	0.1	1.1

Source: ABS, Consumer Price Index, Australia, March 2020, Catalogue No. 6401.0; ABS, Selected Living Cost Indexes, Australia, Mar 2020, Catalogue No. 6467.0.

[139] We have decided to award a substantially lower increase this year than that awarded last year due to the marked change in the economic environment and the tax-transfer system and other changes which have taken effect in the current Review period which have benefitted low-paid households. The increases we have awarded are likely to maintain the real value of the wages of NMW and award-reliant employees.

[140] The factors we are required to take into account have led us to award an increase of 1.75 per cent. The NMW will be $753.80 per week or $19.84 per hour. The hourly rate has been calculated by dividing the weekly rate by 38, on the basis of the 38-hour week for a full-time employee. This constitutes an increase of $13.00 per week to the weekly rate or 35 cents per hour to the hourly rate.

[141] The proposed NMW and the relevant statutory considerations have led us to increase modern award minimum wages by 1.75 per cent.

[142] We now turn to consider the timing of these adjustments.

[143] ACCI argues that if we were to award an increase in minimum rates (contrary to its arguments) then ‘[e]mployers would want to see as common an approach to the NMW and award rates as possible, and ideally the same increases from the same dates.’ 121 In short, ACCI submitted that ‘synchronisation is important’.122 In support of its position, ACCI asserts that:

‘i. There is a substantial risk of confusion and non-compliance if the system sets a different NMW increase and award wage increase, and they are not synchronised in their commencements. This is a recipe for non-compliance, overpayment and underpayment.

ii. This may not be consistent with s.134(1)(g) and the need for an easy to understand safety net.’ 123

[144] In our view ACCI’s concern for synchronisation is overstated. Clearly, the Act displays a preference for consistent dates of effect of variation determinations and NMW orders, 124 with these determinations and orders generally to take effect in relation to a particular employee at the start of the employee’s first full pay period that starts on or after 1 July in the next financial year.

[145] However, the consistency is subject to the Commission being satisfied that there are exceptional circumstances justifying a later day of operation or effect for one or more variation determinations, an adjustment of the NMW, or adjustments of one or more special NMWs. That said, as the Panel has observed in previous Reviews, a party seeking exemption from or deferral of an increase on the basis of exceptional circumstances must make out a strong case.

[146] We acknowledge that consistency in the quantum and timing of changes to modern award minimum wages, the NMW and special NMWs may be said to make for a safety net that was in some sense easier to understand overall, but it could not be the case that any departure from consistency made so as to accommodate exceptional circumstances would be inconsistent with s.134(1)(g). Obviously, the potential for additional complexity to result from the Commission accepting that exceptional circumstances had been made out, would depend upon the particular circumstances, including the scope of the situation giving rise to the exceptional circumstances and the relief sought. Whether a particular employer would face any additional complexity in practice, would in turn depend upon whether or in what ways the relief granted by the Commission affects that employer and the systems the employer has in place to keep itself informed of and to implement the outcomes of Reviews.

[147] In our view very few employers would face additional complexity arising from different operative dates for the NMW order and any variations to modern award minimum wages because very few employees are covered by (and paid at the rates specified in) the NMW order. This is particularly so as a consequence of the variation to the coverage of the Miscellaneous Award 2020, effective from 1 July 2020. 125

[148] While ACCI does not advocate a deferred date of operation, if contrary to its ‘primary approach’ of no increase, the Panel decided to award an increase in minimum wages, then it submits the increase should not take effect until 1 January 2021. 126 ACCI also considers that s.286(2):

‘… does not preclude a finding that a crisis or exceptional circumstances are of such far reaching breadth that all industries and all workplaces are impacted, or that the differential nature of the impact is so minor and isolated that it cannot usefully be differentiated ...

There must be some scope to assess ‘exceptional circumstances’ in the broad without the proof points and particularisation charted in the preceding decisions. There must at some point be a scale of disaster or challenge that is of such magnitude that particularisation and local evidence is not required.’ 127

[149] Ai Group takes a similar position and submits that ‘[g]iven the obvious “exceptional circumstances” that exist at the current time’, ‘the Expert Panel should not award a minimum wage increase in this year’s Review’, but ‘[i]f, despite Ai Group’s submissions, the Expert Panel decides to award a minimum wage increase, the increase should not be operative before 1 January 2021 (emphasis added)’. 128 Further, in Ai Group’s view:

‘Given the widespread negative impacts of the Pandemic on businesses in all industry sectors, it is not appropriate for the Expert Panel to award a different level of increase to businesses that are, or are not, eligible for the Jobkeeper Scheme, or businesses in different sectors.’ 129

[150] In short, if an increase is awarded then ACCI submits it should not be operative before 1 January 2021; whereas Ai Group submits (in essence) that it should operate after 1 January 2021.

[151] ARA also does not support an increase to minimum wages, but submits that if the Panel determines an increase should occur, it should be delayed for retail businesses until 1 February 2021. 130

[152] While proposing a 4 per cent increase the ACBC accepts that:

‘the current restrictions on movement and opening of most businesses constitutes an “exceptional circumstance” … Accordingly, the ACBC would not oppose a deferred implementation date of any increases to the National Minimum Wage until a period later in the year, to accommodate the lifting of restrictions.’ 131

[153] During the course of the final consultations on 10 June 2020 counsel for the ACBC clarified the submission put. The ACBC does not oppose the deferred implementation of the NMW order and any increases in modern award minimum wages until ‘later in the year’. 132

[154] The ACTU opposes any deferral and contends that the ‘exceptional circumstances’ which would create the basis for the deferral of an increase in any minimum wage contained in a NMW order or a determination to vary modern award minimum wages, have not been made out. 133

[155] As mentioned earlier, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has not been consistent across all sectors of the economy. As shown in Charts 1.4 and 1.5, while some industries have been substantially affected, other sectors have been affected to a much lower extent. In our view these data do not support a general deferral of the type advocated by ACCI and Ai Group. In this regard it is important to note the terms of s.286(2):

‘(2) If the FWC is satisfied that there are exceptional circumstances justifying why a variation determination should not come into operation until a later day, the FWC may specify that later day as the day on which it comes into operation. However, the determination must be limited just to the particular situation to which the exceptional circumstances relate.

Note: This may mean that the FWC needs to make more than one determination, if different circumstances apply to different employees.’ (emphasis added).

[156] In our view the data showing the differential impact of the pandemic on particular industry sectors and the import of s.286(2) of the Act warrants a more nuanced approach than that advocated by ACCI and Ai Group.

[157] We turn first to the NMW order. As mentioned earlier, the case for synchronisation with the implementation of any increases in modern award minimum wages is overstated. In any event we have decided to defer the determination in respect of some modern awards so the opportunity for synchronisation does not arise.

[158] It is also relevant to observe that, as mentioned earlier, very few employees have their wage set by the NMW order and there are no data as to the industries in which they work. The NMW order only applies to ‘award/agreement free employees’ (see s.294). Section 12 defines an award/agreement free employee to mean ‘a national system employee to whom neither a modern award nor an enterprise agreement applies’. Recent amendments to the coverage of the Miscellaneous Award 2020 mean that there are very few (if any) employees whose wage rate is set at the NMW by the NMW order.

[159] We are not satisfied that there are ‘exceptional circumstances’ such as to justify the adjustments set by a NMW order taking effect on a day later than 1 July 2020. The NMW order will come into operation on 1 July 2020.

200 Ibid at p. 17.

201 Ibid at p. 18.

202 Discussion paper [51].

203 Ibid [45].

204 ACTU supplementary submission, 29 May 2020 at paras 57–74.

205 Ibid at paras 57; 59.

206 Ibid at para. 58.

207 Ibid at para. 72.

208 SDA supplementary submission, 29 May 2020 at para. 1.

209 ACTU supplementary submission, 29 May 2020 at para. 70.

210 Australian Government response to supplementary questions on notice, 1 June 2020 at p. 3. See also ACBC response to supplementary questions on notice, 29 May 2020 at para. 9.

211 Ai Group supplementary submission, 29 May 2020 at pp. 18; 19.

212 Discussion paper [57].

213 [2011] FWAFB 975 [13] (summarising Ho v Professional Services Review Committee No 295 [2007] FCA 388 [23]–[27])

and [2018] FWCFB 901 [15]–[17].

214 ACBC response to supplementary questions on notice, 29 May 2020 at paras 2–8.

215 ACBC response to supplementary questions on notice, 29 May 2020 at para. 7.

216 ACTU supplementary submission, 29 May 2020 at paras 73; 76.

217 Ibid at para. 74.

218 Australian Government response to supplementary questions on notice, 1 June 2020 at p. 3.

219 Ai Group supplementary submission, 29 May 2020 at p. 19.

220 ACBC response to supplementary questions on notice, 29 May 2020 at para. 9.

221 Australian Government response to supplementary questions on notice, 1 June 2020 at pp. 3–4.

222 ACTU submitted that it would be premature to comment on merit unless or until the relevant ‘exceptional circumstances’ had been defined, and also made a number of observations about the operation of the JobKeeper scheme that go to merit; see ACTU supplementary submission, 29 May 2020 at paras 75–85.

223 Ai Group supplementary submission, 29 May 2020 at p. 20.

224 ACCI supplementary submission, 29 May 2020 at paras 56–61. While ACCI doesn’t actually say it opposes it—because it opposes deferral—this is a fair reading of its submissions.

225 ARA response to supplementary questions on notice, 29 May 2020 at p. 1.

226 NRA supplementary submissions, 29 May 2020 at p. 3.

227 ACBC supplementary submission, 29 May 2020 at para. 10.

228 See [2012] FWAFB 5000 at [34]–[35]; [2013] FWCFB 4000 at [96]–[98]; [2015] FWCFB 3500 at [115]–[116] and [2016] FWCFB 3500 at [139].

229 Debelle G (2020), The virus and the Australian economy, keynote address at the Australian Financial Review Business Summit, 11 March, Sydney, p. 1.

230 See Information note―Government responses to COVID-19 pandemic 16 June 2020.

231 RBA (2020), Statement on Monetary Policy, May, p. 1.

232 Kennedy S (2020), Opening statement—March 2020 Senate Estimates, Secretary to the Treasury, 5 March.

233 Statistical report (version 13), 17 June 2020, Chart 1.2.

234 ABS, ‘Household consumption behaviour in response to COVID-19’, Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, Mar 2020, Catalogue No. 5206.0.

235 ABS, ‘Key tables’, Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, Mar 2020, Catalogue No. 5206.0.

236 For example, Ai Group supplementary submission, 29 May 2020 at pp. 8–9; ACTU supplementary submission, 29 May 2020 at para. 39.

237 ANZ-Roy Morgan (2020), Australian consumer confidence rating, weekly, 10 June.

238 Statistical report (version 13), 17 June 2020, Chart 1.2.

239 ABS, ‘Key tables’, Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, Mar 2020, Catalogue No. 5206.0.

240 NAB (2020), NAB monthly business survey, May.

241 ABS, ‘Hours worked in the national accounts’, Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, Mar 2020, Catalogue No. 5206.0

242 Statistical report (version 13), 17 June 2020, Overview.

243 Lowe P (2020), Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision, 2 June. Also see RBA, Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board - 2 June 2020, released 16 June.

244 ABS, ‘Classifying people during the COVID-19 period, Labour Force, Australia, Apr 2020, Catalogue No. 6202.0.

245 Statistical report (version 14), 18 June 2020, Chart 6.1.

246 ABS, Labour Force, Australia, May 2020, Catalogue No. 6202.0.

247 [2019] FWCFB 3500 at [148]; Statistical report (version 14), 18 June 2020, Overview.

248 ABS, Weekly Payroll Jobs and Wages in Australia, Week ending 30 May 2020, Catalogue No. 6160.0.55.001.

249 Statistical report (version 13), 17 June 2020, Table 6.12.

250 ABS, Labour Account Australia, March 2020, Catalogue No. 6150.0.55.003.

251 Statistical report (version 13), 17 June 2020, Table 5.3.

252 Although the change in jobs is provided by the ABS at the 2-digit industry subdivision level, this is not available for wages.

253 ABS, Labour Account Australia, March 2020, Catalogue No. 6150.0.55.003.

254 Based on the number of filled jobs.

255 Statistical report (version 13), 17 June 2020, Chart 3.10; ABS, ‘Trading Status of Australian Businesses’, Business Indicators, Business Impacts of COVID-19, Week Commencing 30 March 2020, Catalogue No. 5676.0.55.003.

256 Statistical report (version 13), 17 June 2020, Table 7.2; ABS, Retail Trade, Australia, Apr 2020, Catalogue No. 8501.0.

257 Statistical report (version 13), 17 June 2020, Table 6.12.

258 Profit estimates are only for industries in the market sector.

259 Does not include profits in Agriculture, forestry and fishing.

260 Statistical report (version 13), 17 June 2020, Chart 1.5; Chart 3.17.

261 Ai Group submission in reply, 4 May 2020 at p. 12; ACCI submission in reply, 4 May 2020 at para. 63; ABI submission, 13 March 2020 at pp. 22–23; ARA submission, 20 March 2020 at pp. 10–11; MGA/MTA submission, 13 March 2020 pp. 27–113; NRA submission in reply, 6 May 2020 at p. 5; R&CA submission, 19 March 2020 at paras 20–21; SAWIA submission, 20 March 2020 at pp. 5–6; ARA response to supplementary questions on notice, 29 May 2020 at p. 1.

262 [2016] FWCFB 3500 at [14], [196]; [2015] FWCFB 3500 at [266]–[275]; [2014] FWCFB 3500 at [226]–[228]; [2013] FWCFB 4000 at [265], [438]–[442]; [2012] FWAFB 5000 at [203].

263 [2013] FWCFB 4000 at [441].

264 [2014] FWCFB 3500 at [226].

265 MGA submission, 13 March 2020 at pp. 27–113.

266 Frydenberg J (2020), The economic impact of the crisis, Ministerial Statement on the Economy, Parliament House, Canberra, 12 May.

267 Lowe P (2020), An Economic and Financial Update, RBA Speech, 21 April.

268 RBA (2020), Statement on Monetary Policy, May, p. 87.

269 Ibid.

270 Senate Select Committee on COVID-19 (2020), Proof Committee Hansard, Commonwealth of Australia, 28 May, p. 2..

271 Ibid, p. 85.

272 Ibid, p. 9.

273 Ibid, p. 88.

274 Ibid, p. 88–89.

275 Senate Select Committee on COVID-19 (2020), Proof Committee Hansard, Commonwealth of Australia, 9 June.

276 [2019] FWCFB 3500 at [185].

277 RBA (2020), Statement on Monetary Policy, May, p. 9.

278 Ibid, pp. 86; 90.

279 Ibid, pp. 5, 92.

280 Ibid, p. 92.

281 RBA (2020), Statement on Monetary Policy, February, p. 68.

282 RBA (2020), Statement on Monetary Policy, May, p. 90.

283 Ibid, pp. 92–93.

284 Ibid, pp. 93–94.

285 Senate Select Committee on COVID-19 (2020), Proof Committee Hansard, Commonwealth of Australia, 28 May, p. 2.

286 Lowe P (2020), Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision, Media release, 2 June.

287 RBA (2020), Statement on Monetary Policy, May, p. 9.

288 Fair Work Act 2009 (Cth), s.134(1)(c) and s.284(1)(b).

289 [2019] FWCFB 3500 at [195].

290 [2019] FWCFB 3500 at [196].

291 [2018] FWCFB 3500 at [31]; [2019] FWCFB 3500 at [197].

292 For example, see Statistical report (version 13), 17 June 2020, Charts 8.1 and 8.2.

293 [2019] FWCFB 3500 at [248]; [2018] FWCFB 3500 at [311].

294 Statistical report (version 13), 17 June 2020, Chart 8.3.

295 Ibid, Table 8.1.

296 Ibid, Chart 8.5.

297 Commonwealth Treasury (2020), Economic Response to the Coronavirus, Australian Government, 31 March.

298 Ibid.

299 Ibid; Department of Social Services (2020), Coronavirus (COVID–19) information and support, Australian Government, March.

300 Australian Taxation Office (2020), JobKeeper Payment: Your eligible employers, updated 14 May.

301 Department of Education Skill and Employment (2020), Coronavirus (COVID-19): Information for early childhood education and care providers and services on Early Childhood Education and Care Relief Package payments from 6 April 2020, Australian Government, 8 June.

302 Department of Education Skill and Employment (2020), Transition arrangement for the end of the Early Childhood and Care Relief Package, Australian Government, 8 June.

303 [2019] FWCFB 3500 at [226]

304 Ai Group submission, 13 March 2020 at p. 40.

305 Ibid at p. 42.

306 Ai Group submission in reply, 4 May 2020, pp. 9–10.

307 [2019] FWCFB 3500 at [203].

308 [Ibid: [2018] FWCFB 3500 at [301].

309 [2017] FWCFB 3500 at [437].

310 [2018] FWCFB 3500 at [297].

311 [2019] FWCFB 3500 at [205].

312 Ibid at [53].

313 Ibid at [201].

314 [2019] FWCFB 3500 at [324]; [2018] FWCFB 3500 at [330], [336].

315 [2019] FWCFB 3500 at [325]; [2018] FWCFB 3500 at [334].

316 [2019] FWCFB 3500 at [329].

317 [2018] FWCFB 3500 at [332].

318 [2019] FWCFB 3500 at [326].

319 Ibid at [330].

320 Ibid at [277]–[315].

321 Saunders P & Bedford M (2017), New minimum income for healthy living budget standards for low-paid and unemployed Australians’, SPRC Report 11/17, Social Policy Research Centre, UNSW Sydney.

322 [2019] FWCFB 3500 at [279].

323 Saunders & Bedford (2017), at pp. 2; 7–11; 73.

324 [2019] FWCFB 3500 at [284]; [307].

325 [2019] FWCFB 3500 at [309].

326 See for further discussion on assumptions: [2019] FWCFB 3500 at [311]–[313].

327 Ibid at [314].

328 Statistical report (version 13), 17 June 2020, Table 12.1.

329 Statistical report (version 13), 17 June 2020, Table 12.1.

330 ABS, ‘Key findings’, Household Impacts of COVID-19 Survey, 14-17 Apr 2020, Catalogue No. 4940.0. The ABS General Social Survey was undertaken in 2014.

331 Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research (2020), Research Insights: Taking the Pulse of the Nation, 1–6 June at p. 2.

332 Statistical report (version 13), 17 June 2020, Chart 12.2; Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research (2020), Research Insights: Taking the Pulse of the Nation, 1–6 June.

333 Ibid.

334 Statistical report (version 13), 17 June 2020, Chart 12.4; Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research (2020), Research Insights: Taking the Pulse of the Nation, 1–6 June.

335 Statistical report (version 13), 17 June 2020, Chart 12.3; Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research (2020), Research Insights: Taking the Pulse of the Nation, 20–23 April.

336 Fair Work Act 2009 (Cth), s.3(f).

337 [2019] FWCFB 3500 at [365].

338 Ibid at [366]–[372].

339 ACTU submission, 20 March 2020 at para. 512.

340 ACCI submission, 29 March 2020 at para. 379.

341 RBA (2020), Statement on Monetary Policy, February, p. 69.

342 [2019] FWCFB 3500 at [371].

343 Attorney-General’s Department, Trends in Federal Enterprise Bargaining Report, September quarter 2019, Attachment A.

344 Attorney-General’s Department, Trends in Federal Enterprise Bargaining Report, December quarter 2019, p. 12.

345 ACTU submission, 20 March 2020 at para. 523.

346 See [2019] FWCFB 3500 at [379]–[385].

347 See for example ACTU submission, 20 March 2020 at para. 531; ACCI submission, 29 March 2020 at para. 388; Ai Group submission, 16 March 2020 at p. 49.

348 [2019] FWCFB 3500 at [386].

349 ACCI submission, 29 March 2020 at para. 387.

350 [2019] FWCFB 3500 at [388]; [2018] FWCFB 3500 at [35]–[38].

351 Wilkins & Zilio (2020), p. 14, Table 7.

352 [2019] FWCFB 3500 at [389]–[390].

353 Ibid at [396].

354 Ibid at [397]; [2018] FWCFB 3500 at [435].

355 Ai Group submission, 16 March 2020 at p. 45; [2018] FWCFB 3500 at [38].

356 ACCI submission, 29 March 2020 at para. 396(b).

357 Wilkins & Zilio (2020), p. 11, Table 3.

358 Wilkins & Zilio (2020), p. 14, Table 7.

359 Fair Work (Transitional Provisions and Consequential Amendments) Act 2009 (Cth), s.22; Note [2013] FWAFB 4000 at [550]–[553] clarifies these are different categories of transitional instruments.

360 Some Division 2A State reference transitional awards may still operate such as where they are related to awards that have not been terminated under the termination of instruments process.

361 Some Division 2B State reference transitional awards may still operate such as where they are related to awards that have not been terminated under the termination of instruments process.

362 Some Division 2B State awards may still operate such as where they cover: employees also covered by enterprise instruments; or State reference public sector awards.

363 Two transitional pay equity orders currently operate, created under item 43 of Sch. 3, and item 30A of Sch. 3A, of the Transitional Act respectively. The Panel must review and may make a determination varying the transitional pay equity order created under sub item 30D(1) of Sch. 3A, to the extent that it is derived from the Queensland Community Services and Crisis Assistance Award – State 2008 (Regs 3A.01B).

364 See discussion further for whom these instruments apply [2013] FWCFB 4000 at [550]–[561].

365 [2010] FWAFB 4000 at [370]–[396].

366 Dunn A & Bray G (2010), Minimum wage transitional instruments under the Fair Work Act 2009 and the Fair Work (Transitional Provisions and Consequential Amendments) Act 2009, Research Report 06/2010, Fair Work Australia, June 2010.

367 [2017] FWCFB 1931 at [81].

368 Fair Work (Transitional Provisions and Consequential Amendments) Act 2009 (Cth), items 5(1)–(5) and 9(4) of Sch. 6.

369 Ibid at items 5(3), 6 and 10(1) of Sch. 6A.

370 For example, certain instruments that covered employees who were also covered by the Social, Community, Home Care and Disability Industry Award 2010 were preserved by the Award Modernisation – Termination of Modernisable Instruments decision [2010] FWAFB 9916 at [44]. As at the date of this decision, they have not been terminated.

371 A more detailed outline of these instruments can be found at [2013] FWCFB 4000 at [553]–[559]; and [2017] FWCFB 1931 at [81].

372 Fair Work (Transitional Provisions and Consequential Amendments) Act 2009 (Cth), items 10 and 20 of Sch. 9, items 7 and 12A(5) of Sch. 3.

373 Ibid at items 7–8 of Sch. 9, and item 3(2) of Sch. 5.

374 For example, Fair Work (Transitional Provisions and Consequential Amendments) Act 2009 (Cth), item 20(1) of Sch. 3.

375 [2010] FWAFB 9916 at [41]–[44].

376 Fair Work (Transitional Provisions and Consequential Amendments) Act 2009 (Cth), item 10(1) of Sch. 9 and item 12A of Sch. 3.

377 [2017] FWCFB 3500 at [697].

378 ACTU submission, 20 March 2020 at para. 550; ACCI submission, 29 March 2020 at para. 401; Ai Group submission, 16 March 2020 at p. 48.

379 The Fair Work (Transfer of Business) Amendment Act 2012 (Cth), which commenced on 4–5 December 2012, introduced Part 6–3A into the Act. A copied State award continues to operate under the national system for a period of five years, unless terminated or extended by regulation. See s.768AO of the Fair Work Act2009 (Cth).

380 The provisions of the Fair Work (Transitional Provisions and Consequential Amendments) Regulations 2009 (Cth)dealing with the variation of Division 2B State awards in annual wage reviews also apply to copied State awards. See ss. 768BY and 768AW(b) of the Fair Work Act2009 (Cth).

381 [2018] FWCFB 3500 at [452].

382 For example, ACTU submission, 20 March 2020 at para. 550; ACCI submission, 29 March 2020, at para 401.

383 ACCI submission, 29 March 2020 at para. 403.

384 Ibid at para. 402.

385 Fair Work Act 2009 (Cth), ss.284(3), 285(2)(a)(i).

386 Victorian Government submission, 13 March 2020 at para. 6.2.7.

387 Ibid at para. 8.3.

388 Ibid at paras 6.1.1-6.2.12.

389 ABI and NSWBC submission, 13 March 2020 at pp. 14-15; MGA submission, 13 March 2020 at pp. 15-16.

390 ABI and NSWBC submission, 13 March 2020 at pp. 14-15.

391 Ai Group submission in reply, 4 May 2020 at p. 29.

392 ABI and NSWBC submission, 13 March 2020 at p. 26.

393 MGA submission, 13 March 2020 at p. 6.

394 ACTU submission, 20 March 2020 at para. 537; ACCI submission, 29 March 2020 at para. 406; Ai Group submission, 16 March 2020 at p. 49; ACOSS submission, 13 March 2020 at p. 16; RCA submission, 19 March 2020 at para. 9.

395 [2019] FWCFB 3500 at [409]–[420].

396 AWU submission, 18 March 2019 at para. 3.

397 Background paper – Annual Wage Review 2018–19 — Junior rates of pay in modern awards, 8 May 2019.

398 Notice of listing – 15 May 2019.

399 [2019] FWCFB 3500 at [416].

400 Ibid at [419].

401 RTBU submission, 11 July 2019.

402 ACTU submission, 20 March 2020 at paras 533-534.

403 Ibid at para. 537.

404 [2019] FWCFB 3500 at [420].

405 Ibid at [417].

406 Victorian Government submission, 13 March 2020 at para. 6.1.1.

407 Ibid at para. 8.3.

408 ACCI submission, 29 March 2020 at paras 280–282 citing National Centre for Vocational Education Research, Historical time series of apprenticeships and traineeships in Australia from 1963 to 2019, 12 December 2019 at

ARA submission, 20 March 2020 at pp. 8-9 citing National Centre for Vocational Education Research, Historical time series of apprenticeships and traineeships in Australia from 1963 to 2019, 12 December 2019; HIA submission, 20 March 2020 at pp. 6–7, citing NCVER 2019, Australian vocational education and training statistics: apprentices and trainees 2019 — June quarter, NCVER, Adelaide.

409 HIA submission, 20 March 2020 at p. 7.

410 Ibid at p. 8.

411 Ibid at p. 8.

412 ACCI submission, 29 March 2020 at para. 283.

413 Ibid at para. 284.

414 HIA submission, 20 March 2020 at p. 8.

415 ACTU submission in reply, 4 May 2020 at para. 33.

416 Ibid at para. 543; ACCI submission, 29 March 2020 at para. 408; Ai Group submission, 16 March 2020 at p. 49; ACOSS submission, 13 March 2020 at p. 16; R&CA submission, 19 March 2020 at para. 12; Ai Group submission in reply, 4 May 2020 at p. 7.

417 RTBU submission, 14 May 2019 at p. 1.

418 RTBU submission, 11 July 2019.

419 RTBU submission, 20 February 2020 at para. 8.

420 Ibid at para. 9.

421 Rail, Tram & Bus Union Australia submission, 20 February 2020 at para. 13.

422 Ai Group submission, 24 February 2020 at p. 2.

423 Ibid at p. 2.

424 Ibid at p. 3.

425 Aurizon, Australian Rail Track Corporation, Brookfield Rail Pty Ltd, Sydney Trains and V/Line Passenger Pty Ltd submission, 26 February 2020 at p. 1.

426 Aurizon, Australian Rail Track Corporation, Brookfield Rail Pty Ltd, Sydney Trains and V/Line Passenger Pty Ltd submission, 26 February 2020 at p. 2.

427 Aurizon, Australian Rail Track Corporation, Brookfield Rail Pty Ltd, Sydney Trains and V/Line Passenger Pty Ltd submission, 26 February 2020 at p. 2.

428 Notice of Listing – 27 February 2020.

429 Rail, Tram & Bus Union Australia correspondence, 3 March 2020.

430 [2020] FWC 1104.

431 [2020] FWC 1104 at [24].

432 Ibid at [25].

433 Ibid at [28].

434 ACTU submission, 20 March 2020 at para. 544.

435 Ai Group submission in reply, 4 May 2020 at p. 7.

436 Ibid at p. 7.

437 [2019] FWCFB 3500 at [417].

438 ACTU submission, 20 March 2020 at paras 545-546; ACCI submission, 29 March 2020 at para. 409; Ai Group submission, 16 March 2020 at p. 51; ACOSS submission, 13 March 2020 at p. 16.

439 Victorian Government submission, 13 March 2020 at para. 6.4.6.

440 [2019] FWCFB 3500 at [425]; [2018] FWCFB 3500 at [464]; [2017] FWCFB 3500 at [714]; [2016] FWCFB 3500 at [608].

441 [2019] FWCFB 8179.

442 [2019] FWCFB 8179 at [368].

443 See [2019] FWCFB 8179 and [2020] FWCFB 343 at [1].

444 ACTU submission, 20 March 2020 at para. 547.

445 Ibid at para. 549; ACCI submission, 29 March 2020 at para. 411; Ai Group submission, 16 March 2020 at p. 51.

446 ACTU submission, 20 March 2020 at para. 549.

447 Fair Work Act 2009 (Cth), ss.284(3), 285(2)(a); 294(1)(c).

448 Fair Work Act 2009 (Cth), s.295(1)(b).

449 ACTU submission, 20 March 2020 at para. 548; ACCI submission, 29 March 2020 at para. 413; Ai Group submission, 16 March 2020 at p. 52; RCA submission, 19 March 2020 at para. 15.

450 [2015] FWCFB 3500 at [560].

451 Ibid at [565].

452 [2016] FWCFB 3500 at [640].

453 ACTU submission, 20 March 2020 at para. 548; Ai Group submission, 16 March 2020 at p. 52.

454 Fair Work Act2009 (Cth), s.294(1)(b).

455 ACTU submission, 20 March 2020 at para. 537; ACCI submission, 29 March 2020 at para. 414; Ai Group submission, 16 March 2020 at p. 47.

456 ACTU submission, 20 March 2020 at para. 543; ACCI submission, 29 March 2020 at para. 415; Ai Group submission, 16 March 2020 at p. 48.

457 [2019] FWCFB 3500 at [445].

458 ACTU submission, 20 March 2020 at para. 545; ACCI submission, 29 March 2020 at para. 416; Ai Group submission, 16 March 2020 at p. 47.

459 See reference list at Appendix 5.

460 The Act also directs the FWC to take into account the principle of equal remuneration of work of equal value and providing fair minimum wages to junior employees, employees on training arrangements, and employees with as disability.

461 To quote: “The Australian economy is going through a very difficult period and is experiencing the biggest economic contraction since the 1930s.” Table 14.2 of the Statistical Report reports a figure of only –6.7 per cent for 2020. This, however, relates to average year-on-year change, which is different to change over the calendar year (i.e., over the year ended December).

463 But the annual declines in real GDP per capita were still more severe in 1983 (–4.7 per cent) and 1991 (–2.7 per cent).

464 All figures come from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, but sourced from RBA Statistical Table, Gross Domestic Product and Income – H1.

465 The reference weeks for this survey was 3–16 May 2020.

466 This measure is based on a count of heads. A superior measure of underutilisation would be based on the difference between usual hours worked and hours desired. Such volume-based measures of labour underutilisation are constructed by the ABS (see Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, Quarterly, ABS cat. no. 6291.0.55.003, Table 23a), but are only available on a quarterly basis. In May 2020 this rate was 11.9 per cent (not seasonally adjusted). This compares with the non-adjusted headcount rate at this time of 19.8 per cent. Thus, a count of heads significantly overstates the extent to which labour is truly underutilised. Nevertheless, the volume-based measure has also experienced the same surge in recent months, rising by 4.6 percentage points between February and May.

467 ABS, Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product (ABS cat no. 5206.0). Table 34. Key Aggregates and analytical series, Annual.

468 The long-term decline is mainly due to the reduction in investment in the mining sector. This, however, is far less of a factor in 2020.

469 Following Rozenbes and Farmakis-Gamboni (2017), underemployment here is defined as persons who usually work part-time hours (in all jobs) and who prefer more hours. ABS data on underemployment by industry would be preferred, but while such data are clearly collected in the Labour Force Survey, they do not appear to be easily accessible from the ABS website.

470 There is also a positive, but weaker, association between change in underemployment rates and award reliance—0.59 when correlating the change in underemployment between 2008 and 2018 and award reliance in 2018.

471 See: ABS, Business Indicators, Business Impacts of COVID-19, April 2020 (ABS cat no. 5676.0.55.003).

472 There are likely many workers who are being paid at rates below what are specified in awards, and for whom minimum wages are therefore no protection.

473 The headline CPI rate, according to the RBA, is set to become highly volatile, declining by 1 per cent over the year to June 2020 but then rising by 2.75 per cent in the year to June 2021. For forecasting purposes, it may be better to use their projected rate of trimmed mean inflation, which is a lot more stable – 1.5 per cent in year to June 2020 and 1.25 per cent in year to June 2021. This, however, makes little difference to the argument presented here, raising price inflation to just 18.5 per cent over the 10-year period.

474 Wold Health Organization (2020), Pneumonia of unknown cause – China, 5 January.

475 World Health Organization (2020), Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): Situation report – 1, 21 January.

476 Senate Select Committee on COVID-19 (2020), Proof Committee Hansard, Commonwealth of Australia, 23 April.

477 World Health Organization (2020), Rolling updates on Coronavirus disease (COVID–19), 11 June; World Health Organisation (2020), Statement on the second meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee regarding the outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), 30 January.

478 Office of Prime Minister of Australia (2020), Updated travel advice to protect Australians from the novel coronavirus, Media release, Commonwealth Government of Australia, 1 February.

479 World Health Organization (2020), Rolling updates on Coronavirus disease (COVID–19), 11 June.

480 Department of Health (2020), Australian Health Sector Emergency Response Plan for Novel Coronavirus (COVID–19), Commonwealth Government of Australia, last updated 7 February.

481 The Hon. Scott Morrison: Prime Minister (2020), Press Conference transcript, Commonwealth Government of Australia, 27 February.

482 World Health Organization (2020), WHO Director-General’s opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 – 11 March 2020, Geneva Switzerland, 11 March.

483 The Hon. Scott Morrison MP, Prime Minister (2020), Media release: Advice on Coronavirus, Commonwealth Government of Australia, 13 March.

484 Council of Australian Governments (2020), National Partnership on COVID–19 Response, 13 March.

485 General, the Hon David Hurley (2020), Biosecurity (Human Biosecurity Emergency) (Human Coronavirus with Pandemic Potential) Declaration 2020, Commonwealth Government of Australia, 18 March.

486 World Health Organization (2020), Q&A on coronaviruses (COVID-19): What are the symptoms of COVID-19?, Geneva Switzerland, 17 April; World Health Organization (2020), Clinical management of severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) when COVID-19 disease is suspected Geneva Switzerland, 13 March; World Health Organization (2020), Clinical management of COVID-19: Interim guidance, 27 May.

487 World Health Organization (2020), Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, Geneva Switzerland, 14 June.

488 World Health Organization (2020), Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): Situation Report – 143, Geneva Switzerland, 14 June.

489 Department of Health (2020), Coronavirus (COVID-19) at a glance, Commonwealth Government of Australia, updated 14 June.

490 Department of Health (2020), Impact of COVID-19 in Australia - ensuring the health system can respond, Commonwealth Government of Australia, 7 April.

491 Department of Health (2020), Australian Health Protection Principal Committee (AHPPC), Commonwealth Government of Australia, 11 June.

492 Senate Select Committee on COVID-19 (2020), Proof Committee Hansard, Commonwealth of Australia, 23 April, pp. 1–2.

493 Department of Health (2020), Modelling how COVID-19 could affect Australia, Commonwealth Government of Australia, 7 April.

494 Department of Health (2020), Impact of COVID-19: theoretical modelling of how the health system can respond, Commonwealth Government of Australia, 7 April.

495 Price DJ, Shearer FM, Meehan M, McBryde E, Golding N, McVernon J & McCaw JM (2020), Technical Report: Estimating the case detection rate and temporal; variation in transmission of COVID-19 in Australia, Victorian Infectious Diseases Laboratory Epidemiology Unit at The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity; The University of Melbourne and Royal Melbourne Hospital, 14 April.

496 Refers to the proportion of all symptomatic cases of COVID-19 that are detected in a jurisdiction. The authors of this study applied the method developed at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine that uses the Crude Fatality Rate in a region (adjusted for cases with known outcomes) to provide a symptomatic case detection rate in Australia.

497 Price et al (2020), p. 4.

498 Department of Health (2020), Australian Health Protection Principal Committee (AHPPC) coronavirus (COVID-19) statement on 16 April 2020, Commonwealth Government of Australia, 17 April.

499 Ibid.

500 Department of Health (2020), Update: Modelling the current impact of COVID-19 in Australia, Commonwealth Government of Australia, 24 April.

501 Ibid, 1 May.

502 Moss R, Wood J, Brown D, Shearer F, Black A J, Cheng A C, McCaw J M & McVernon J (2020), Modelling the impact of COVID-19 in Australia to inform transmission reducing measures and health system preparedness, draft manuscript Modelling and Simulation Unit, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, 7 April.

503 Ibid, p. 2.

504 Ibid, p. 6–7.

505 Ibid, p. 5.

506 Ibid, p. 3.

507 Department of Health (2020), Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemiology reports, Australia, 2020, Commonwealth Government of Australia, 12 June.

508 COVID-19 National Incident Room Surveillance Team (2020), COVID-19, Australia: Epidemiology Report 17: Reporting fortnight ending 24 May 2020, Communicable Diseases Intelligence Volume 44, 5 June.

509 Department of Health (2020), Information for Clinicians: Frequently Asked Questions, Commonwealth Government of Australia.

510 Fair Work Commission (2020), Information note – Government responses to COVID-19 pandemic, 16 June.

511 Department of Home Affairs (2020), COVID–19 and the border, Commonwealth Government of Australia.

512 Department of Health (2020), Australian Health Protection Principal Committee (AHPPC) novel coronavirus statement on 1 February 2020, Commonwealth Government of Australia, 1 February; COVID-19 National Incident Room Surveillance Team (2020), COVID-19, Australia: Epidemiology Report 3: Reporting week ending 26 April 2020, Communicable Diseases Intelligence Volume 44, 20 February.

513 The Hon, Scott Morrison MP, Prime Minster (2020), Transcript: Press Conference, Commonwealth Government of Australia, 15 March.

514 The Hon. Scott Morrison MP, Prime Minister (2020), Media release: Advice on Coronavirus, Commonwealth Government of Australia, 13 March.

515 The Hon. Scott Morrison MP, Prime Minister (2020), Media release: Update on coronavirus measures, Commonwealth Government of Australia, 18 March.

516 The Hon. Scott Morrison MP, Prime Minister (2020), Media release: Update on coronavirus measures, Commonwealth Government of Australia, 20 March.

517 The Hon. Scott Morrison MP, Prime Minister (2020), Media Statement: National Cabinet Statement, Commonwealth Government of Australia, 29 March.

518 For example, New South Wales Government (2020), Update on COVID-19 restrictions, media release, 28 April.

519 Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet (2020), Roadmap to a COVIDSafe Australia: A three-step pathway for easing restrictions, Commonwealth Government of Australia.

520 The Hon. Scott Morrison MP, Prime Minister (2020), Media Statement: Update on Coronavirus measures, Commonwealth Government of Australia, 12 June.

521 The Hon. Scott Morrison MP, Prime Minister (2020), National Cabinet Statement, Commonwealth Government of Australia, 29 March.

522 The Hon. Scott Morrison MP, Prime Minister (2020), Transcript: Interview with Samantha Maiden, news.com.au, Commonwealth Government of Australia, 6 May.

523 Leung K, Wu JT, Liu D, & Leung GM (2020), First-wave COVID-19 transmissibility and severity in China outside Hubei after control measures, and second-wave scenario planning: a modelling impact assessment, The Lancet, Vol. 395, Issue 10233, 25 April–1 May, pp. 1382–1393; Xu, S, & Li Y (2020), Beware of the second wave of COVID-19, The Lancet, Volume 395, Issue 10233, 25 April–1 May, pp. 1321–1322.

524 Senate Select Committee on COVID-19 (2020), Proof Committee Hansard, Commonwealth of Australia, 2 June.

525 The Hon. Scott Morrison MP, Prime Minister (2020), Transcript: Press conference, Commonwealth Government of Australia, 29 April.

526 Cassells R, Duncan A, Dockery M, Kilby D & Mavisakalyan, A (2020), Potential Job Losses in the COVID–19 Pandemic, Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre Research Brief #2, p. 4, 30 March.

527 Department of Treasury (2020), Fact sheet: Cash flow assistance for businesses, Commonwealth Government of Australia.

528 Department of Treasury (2020), Fact sheet: Delivering support for business investment, Commonwealth Government of Australia.

529 Department of Treasury (2020), Fact sheet: Delivering support for business investment, Commonwealth Government of Australia; Department of Treasury (2020), Fact sheet: Temporary relief for financially distressed businesses Commonwealth Government of Australia.

530 Department of Treasury (2020), Fact sheet: Cash flow assistance for businesses, Commonwealth Government of Australia.

531 Department of Treasury (2020), Fact sheet: Assistance for severely affected regions and sectors, Commonwealth Government of Australia

532 Department of Treasury (2020), Economic Response to the Coronavirus: Coronavirus SME Guarantee Scheme – supporting the flow of credit, Commonwealth Government of Australia, 14 June.

533 Department of Treasury (2020), Fact sheet: Payments to support households, Commonwealth Government of Australia.

534 Service Australia (2020), More financial support for people affected by coronavirus, Commonwealth Government of Australia, 25 March.

535 Department of Treasury (2020), Fact sheet: Early access to superannuation, Commonwealth Government of Australia; Social Security (Coronavirus Economic Response—2020 Measures No. 2) Determination 2020 (Cth).

536 Hon. Scott Morrison MP, Prime Minister (2020), Press conference: Transcript, Commonwealth Government of Australia, 27 March.

537 Hon. Scott Morrison MP, Prime Minister (2020), Media release: Early childhood education and care relief package, Commonwealth Government of Australia, 2 April.

538 The Hon. Josh Frydenberg MP, Treasurer (2020), Media release: JobKeeper Update, Commonwealth Government of Australia, 24 April.

539 Australian Taxation Office (2020), JobKeeper Payment: Your eligible employees, Commonwealth Government of Australia, 5 June.

540 Hon. Scott Morrison MP, Prime Minister (2020), Press conference: Transcript, Commonwealth Government of Australia, 23 April.

541 Commonwealth Government of Australia (2020), National Cabinet Mandatory Code of Conduct: SME commercial leasing principles during COVID-19, 3 April.

542 Hon. Scott Morrison MP, Prime Minister (2020), National Cabinet Statement, Commonwealth Government of Australia, 29 March.

543 Department of Premier and Cabinet (2020), Supporting Tenants and Landlords Through Coronavirus, Victorian Government, 15 April; Hon. McGowan M & Hon. Quigley J (2020), New laws to provide support for commercial and residential tenants and landlords, Government of Western Australia, 14 April; Barr A & Ramsay G (2020), More information to support tenants and landlords, Government of the ACT, 15 April.

544 Fair Work Commission (2020), Information note – Government responses to COVID-19 pandemic, 16 June.

545 RBA (2020), Statement by Phillip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision: 2020–06, 3 March; RBA (2020), Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision, Media release, 19 March.

Printed by authority of the Commonwealth Government Printer

Re Annual Wage Review 2019-20

[2020] FWCFB 3500

19 JUNE 2020

DECISION

Contents

Abbreviations

The Annual Wage Review Decision

1. The Decision

Table 1.1: Budget forecasts and actual outcomes for selected economic indicators, per cent

Chart 1.2: New and cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases

Table 1.2: Output growth and inflation baseline forecasts, year-ended, per cent ^a,b

Re Annual Wage Review 2019-20

[2020] FWCFB 3500

19 JUNE 2020

DECISION

Contents

Abbreviations

The Annual Wage Review Decision

1. The Decision

Table 1.1: Budget forecasts and actual outcomes for selected economic indicators, per cent

Chart 1.2: New and cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases

Table 1.2: Output growth and inflation baseline forecasts, year-ended, per cent a,b

Table 1.2: Output growth and inflation baseline forecasts, year-ended, per cent ^a,b