CJO15 v Minister for Immigration

The applicant, CJO15, sought judicial review of a decision by the Administrative Appeals Tribunal (the Tribunal) which affirmed the Minister for Immigration's refusal to grant a protection visa. The central dispute concerned whether the Tribunal had correctly understood and applied the "real chance test" when assessing the applicant's risk of future harm.

The primary legal issue before the court was whether the Tribunal, in its assessment of the risk of future harm to the applicant, was required to incorporate into that assessment the probability of claimed past events having occurred. The applicant also sought leave to rely on grounds contained in an amended application filed without leave and additional grounds raised in written submissions.

Justice Manousaridis found that the Tribunal was not required to incorporate the probability of past events into its assessment of future risk. The court reasoned that the "real chance test" requires an assessment of whether there is a real chance of future harm, irrespective of the precise probability of past events. The court also refused leave to rely on the proposed grounds, concluding that permitting the applicant to do so would be futile.

No orders were made as the court determined there was no jurisdictional error.